Changing Places: Europeanization as a Good Word

(Cross-posted at Heritage)

The financial crisis has exposed a trend that has been in the works for some time. Since the fall of communism, some of the more socialist countries have learned lessons from the Soviet collapse: free markets work, and government planning does not. Meanwhile, the capitalist countries have slept through these lessons, and have been slowly becoming more socialist.

The financial crisis has made this crystal clear. For example, US car companies, and now auto parts dealers, have received bailout money. Sweden, every liberal’s favorite social-democratic country, has let their signature car company, Saab, fail.

While the US Federal Reserve has been finding creative ways to print our way out of this financial mess, the European Central Bank has resisted this doomed inflationary policy. The European Union is actually concerned about high taxes, inflation, and excessive spending.

From the formerly communist Czech President of the European Union, we have a warning that Obama’s spending frenzy is a “road to hell,” but from the formerly free market United Kingdom, we have the Prime Minister calling for a Global New Deal.

It seems that, in the 21st century, “European style economy” might come to mean “free market” and “American style capitalism” might be a new term for “socialism.”

The Golden Age of Political Entrepreneurship is Here

(Cross-posted at Heritage)

As Joel Kotkin detailed in the Washington Post this weekend, the Wall Street Bailout and Trillion Dollar Deficit Plan being pushed through Congress this month mark the transfer of power from commercial cities like Chicago, New York, and San Francisco, to Washington DC.

In the business world, campaign contributions and lobbying efforts have replaced cost cutting as the way to maximize profit. Going to Washington with hands outstretched can prevent bankruptcy, and can provide a stimulus to the bottom line. Competing without such government aid is becoming more and more difficult, and rebels who shun such tactics are a dying breed.

This “political entrepreneurship,” or use of political power in place of competition, is not new. In fact, as far back as the “robber baron” age, some businesses preferred to use the power and purse of Congress, rather than have to do the hard work of cost cutting and innovation necessary to be a successful market entrepreneur. The true “robber barons” were not businessmen competing freely in the market, but those businessmen who gained monopoly advantage by lobbying Congress and buying market power.

Today, we still have some “robber barons,” protected by government and producing shoddy products, but we also have endless more miles of red tape on regular business, an incomprehensible tax code with favors for special interests, and subsidies and “pork” for every conceivable interest group request. It. Yet with all this spending and protection, we’re told we need more “stimulus,” and we need to “protect” more jobs.

In the academic world, two developments are driving the movement from economics to politics. The all-round analysis of economics, which can take into account all interactions and effects of various policies, has been abandoned for narrow subtopics and mathematical abstractions. Meanwhile the economists themselves have taken political views and ignored economics in their policy recommendations (for example, Paul Krugman).

But, the movement away from rational and realistic economics – the realization that there are limited resources and limited time, and that we cannot at once waste time digging holes and filling them up again, and also be productive and create prosperity – and toward politics – the art of deception, favoritism and trading favors – will necessarily bankrupt the country.

The new New Deal

Cross Posted at Heritage

Could the current crisis usher in a new “New Deal”, with a new brand of corporatism to replace the free market system? Certainly European leaders are arguing that case. The current economic “crisis,” may itself have been caused by bad policy. Yet, is provides a great pretext for an expansion of government.

During the 1930s, as part of the New Deal, Franklin D. Roosevelt nationalized banks, set prices, wages and work hours, and promoted public works programs to employ the unemployed. The New Deal, or the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) to be precise, was supported by many industrial leaders, some of whom had helped draft the legislation. Cartels, inflated prices and subsidies were great perks for established business, especially those that would have trouble staying ahead in a free market.

Businesses then, as now, cried to Congress about their need for a bailout, and the disaster which would be wrought by their bankruptcy. NIRA was eventually declared unconstitutional. The decision made the important point that “extraordinary conditions do not create or enlarge constitutional powers.”

Until then these laws were widely supported and considered critical to recovery from the economic crisis of the time. Yet intervention did more to cause and prolong the crisis than to aid recovery.

Although these measures were defended as being necessary during an emergency, and only temporary, many still exist today. For example the emergency farm supports created with the Agricultural Adjustment Act (AAA) have morphed into the current Farm Bill, which still pays farmers not grow food.

Like the New Deal period, we are seeing waves of nationalization, bailouts of unrelated industry, and expansion of central bank power. The nationalization of banks during the New Deal was actually smaller than what we are doing today – as a percentage of GDP it was the equivalent to about $500 billion. Today the state took shares in the largest nine banks and bailouts total well over a trillion dollars.

As John Goldberg points out, the stake that government now holds in these banks is actually greater than the stake it held in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and it is quite likely that this temporary measure might too become the regular state of affairs.

If Obama is the next president, he would like to see a return to union domination and government mediation in wages and hours. Obama also favors public works programs to employ those out of work. He has already proposed at least two kinds of programs like this: his “transitional jobs” program which hires the unemployed, and his National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank. With the excuse of an ongoing recession, he could easily roll these into New Deal sized public works projects.

But, prior to the New Deal we had small government. Prior to this new “New Deal” we already have enormous government and massive debt. The Deal we sign today would be for European style socialism, with European style unemployment and stagnation.

Mortgage Socialization

Cross-posted at Heritage.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were created during the New Deal by the Roosevelt administration in order increase home ownership. With government backing and price controls, the supply of housing was artificially increased, with the funds coming from the taxpayer.

Even when Fannie and Freddie were made into government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) in the 1960s, they were still provided the financial support of the Federal Government. Because of their implicit government guarantees, these policy-based suppliers came to dominate the housing market.

As GSEs, Fannie and Freddie purchased 44% of subprime mortgage securities and were the biggest buyer of Countrywide loans. They became an industry duopoly, owning or guaranteeing about half the $12 trillion mortgage market. Risk was socialized, spread across all taxpayers through government guarantee, while profit was concentrated and private. This is a prototype case of government thriving on “concentrated benefits and dispersed costs.”

The ability to do this is what drives government expansion, taking from the masses and channeling the money to a minority – or special – interest. With these special interests, campaigns were launched, politicians entrenched and bureaucracy expanded. Hence Fannie and Freddie represent a massive rent seeking operation, to funnel money into the hands of officials at the expense of the taxpayer.

And yet none of this was sustainable, because it wasn’t profitable. Inevitably there would be collapse. Fannie and Freddie engaged in Enron-style accounting, and mafia-like corporatist tactics. It was their privileged status that led to the corruption, and that distorted the housing market and helped to inflate the housing bubble (also made possible by loose monetary policy).

The government takeover only makes all of these things worse. In the short run there is relief that a market collapse won’t occur imminently, but like the Soviet Union during perestroika, the fear of pain during reform can only lead to the delay of collapse and a more painful landing. Further concentration can only cause further waste, as competition, profit guidance and valuable price signals give way to bureaucracy, rent-seeking, inflation and misdirected investment.

As nationalized firms, Fannie and Freddie are government agencies, relying entirely on public funding. They have no reason to keep costs low, and every reason to allow short-term political objectives to guide their choices instead. Indeed, the Treasury has made it very clear that they will specifically move away from profit guidance. Treasury secretary Paulson said on Sunday that the entities “will no longer be managed with a strategy to maximize common shareholder returns.”

Paulson has promised that the fees they charge banks for loan securitization services will be examined “with an eye toward mortgage affordability,” even as they are neck deep in bankruptcy. This reminds me, again, of the logic of perestroika – instead of freeing prices up and allowing some market adjustment, so that the economy could finally get on track, a compromise was made. Prices would be “based on social costs,” companies were allowed to “take into consideration cost-effectiveness” but “speculative price increases aimed at excessive profit” were forbidden.

The logic of the expanding U.S. government is becoming just as warped. The socialization of risk caused the housing crisis, and the response is to nationalize. Risky lending driven by policy not profit caused the collapse and the “reforms” will reduce fees and shun profitability. If we keep moving in this direction, we’ll pass through our own reverse perestroika, and end up a socialist state.

Socialism Not Speculation to Blame for High Oil Prices

More than 75% of the world’s oil reserves are controlled by national oil companies. Of the world’s top 20 oil-producing firms, 14 are state-run. Those areas where private companies have been able to drill have recently been shrinking, and remaining private companies are facing hostile governments that may try to nationalize them.

Meanwhile, Congress, pandering to the least economically sound sentiments of the American public, recently tried to pass a bill to curb oil market speculation. This, lawmakers argued, was the way to get prices down. Speculation is just trading on the future price of a good. There have been many reasons to expect the price of oil to continue to rise. Along with rising demand, and subsidies to aid the rise in demand, there is a lot of risk. Risk causes volatility and drives prices up — at least in the short term.

There is risk because of the war in Iraq, because of the government in Iran, terrorism, and then there is additional risk because of the growing number of countries where the governments are trying to nationalize the oil supply.

This typically starts with the government harassing private oil companies. Clearly that makes owning stocks in those companies risky as owners will lose their investment. This can also fuel volatility in the futures markets as investors try to predict the likelihood of nationalization. If those companies get taken over or forced out, the total supply of oil may fall and so the future price will be higher.

This has been going on for a few years now. And the trend continues to worsen. Russia’s Vladimir Putin jailed the ex-chief of Yukos oil company so that it could be taken over by state-owned Rosneft in 2004. And today in Moscow, British Petrol is being hassled and taken to court.

In 2003 Hugo Chavez took the reigns of Petroleos de Venezuela in a “re-nationalization” move, and now Ecuador is taking Chevron to court. This little move by Ecuador could be the start of something bigger, as it looks like Ecuador might join forces with Chavez’s state-run venture, which might in turn join forces with Russia’s.

Bolivia also nationalized in 2006. Soon there will be nowhere left outside of Western Europe and the U.S. where private oil can safely drill.

Another reason that nationalization can drive prices up is that state-owned companies tend to under-produce private ones, creating additional risk that long-term output will be lower. Finally, consolidation of oil companies into just a few nationalized firms, especially when those countries form cartels rather than competing freely on the market, will also drive up prices. This trend in nationalization is simply an extension of the existing problems of OPEC. It should be obvious that this trend is contributing to the high oil prices.

But rather than see the reasons for the rise in prices — the real risks which face the oil market — Congress tries to strangle speculation, prevent new drilling, and it even flirts with idea of nationalizing our own supply. Reps. Maurice Hinchey (D-N.Y.) and Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) both recently suggested it, and a recent poll shows many Democrats(and even a few Republicans) think it’s a good idea. But nationalizing is the problem, not the answer.

cross-posted at Heritage.